Tallinn real estate prices 2020–2025: should you wait for prices to fall or buy now?
Author: INGRAD KINNISVARA OÜ
Aleksei Piirisild — chairman of the management board and a broker with over 20 years of market experience. Founder of INGRAD KINNISVARA and an expert in residential and commercial real estate in Estonia.
Over the past five years, the Tallinn real estate market has once again shown that those who “wait for the weather by the sea” ultimately pay more.
Facts
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In May 2020, the average price per square metre in Tallinn was ≈2 127 €/m².
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the market remains at ~3 050 €/m² in the year. Over five years, the increase has been approximately 40%.
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New developments have become even more expensive: in summer 2025, the average price is already 4 540 €/m², which is about 7% higherthan in 2024.
Those who have been waiting for a “decline” since 2020 are paying 35–45% more today.
Why aren't prices falling?
Taxes. VAT: 20% → 22% (2024), from July 2025 onward already 24%. An increase in costs means that prices are also going up.
Construction costs. Wages in the construction sector rose by +6,3% in 2024, while materials became more expensive. In the second quarter of 2025, the construction price index moved upward again.
Supply. New projects start at higher prices and pull up the secondary market with them. In 2025, the average price of a new development in Tallinn is already about 4 500 €/m².
Financing: there is good news too
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Bank margins for new transactions are around 1,4–1,5%.
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In 2025 competition has brought campaigns where the margin is “below 1%” for selected clients.
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Euribor is falling, which means that servicing the loan becomes considerably easier.
Summary for the buyer
Today, Estonia’s real estate market is more of a buyer’s market when it comes to negotiations, but there are no signs of a systemic decline. Falling interest rates and margins make entering the market more affordable, but taxes and construction costs continue to exert upward pressure on prices.
Waiting for a decline is a questionable strategy. Those who have been waiting since 2020 are paying tens of percent more today.
A simple recommendation
If you have found a property and it fits your budget — buy it.
Do not wait for the weather by the sea: the real estate market operates according to its own rules. Waiting for housing prices to fall in Estonia is like waiting for a discount on bread and milk.
Would you like to discuss how to buy wisely and without unnecessary risks?
Write to us — we’ll review your situation and draw up a step-by-step plan.